At 8 p.m. EST tonight on CNN, the Republican presidential candidates gather for one last debate before Floridians head to the polls on Tuesday. CNN’s Wolf Blitzer has promised to keep “marginal stuff” to a minimum – a veiled rebuke of a number of the questions posed to candidates in Monday night’s NBC / National Journal debate which included Florida’s powerful cane sugar lobby and the 7-year-old Terri Schiavo case.
CNN/Southern Republican Debate Scorecard
Fox News / Myrtle Beach Debate Scorecard
NBC / National Journal Florida Debate Scorecard
Polls of Florida over the last several days have shown Romney rebounding into frontrunner status in the Sunshine state – suggesting that anything short of a stellar performance for Newt Gingrich is tantamount to a loss. Romney did not impress in that debate, but neither did he falter – his rebound in the polls shows that Gingrich remains the underdog in the battle for Florida.
What are you likely to see from the candidates tonight? Let’s go to the scorecard:
Mitt Romney: (Previous letter grade: B) Romney’s position is stronger than it appears on paper. Having lost the previous primary in South Carolina fairly resoundingly, he now has rather concrete proof that Gingrich’s surge was solely the result of his debate performance. Stopping Gingrich in the debates wins Romney points by default – he does not even have to impress the audience (he certainly did not impress in the last debate). Romney has stopped the bleeding and can go back to playing prevent defense – go after Gingrich only when the opportunity presents itself and round off any negative with an attack on Obama so as to appear positive and unifying. That should do – let Gingrich implode with a flailing and petulant response to any attacks (a behavior he regularly exhibits). Avoid flip flops and “self-deportation” moments, and Romney should be able to tread water all the way to victory on Tuesday.
Newt Gingrich: (Previous letter grade: B) Gingrich has the more difficult task tonight – he cannot afford to play the aloof frontrunner role. This was his tactic on Monday and it did him no good; his performance may have even hurt him. Combative Gingrich is what works with GOP voters. Flustered, angry, defensive Gingrich who thinks he can talk his way out of any position, does not. The Speaker is likely to again be the subject of a number of attacks by his opponents – since Gingrich’s only effective weapon seems to be attacking the media, all those attacks (select one of the myriad examples off the Drudge Report right now for an example) should be redirected at the media. The Speaker failed to explain away accusations that he was a lobbyist for Freddie Mac and the pharmaceutical industry – he does not have the facts on his side. He needs to deflect the charges, again, back at the media. If he cannot achieve this, he is unlikely to arrest the momentum heading back into the Romney camp and will likely lose the whole ballgame in Florida on Tuesday.
Rick Santorum: (Previous letter grade: B+) Santorum has outperformed his opponents on the debate stage in the last three consecutive debates. He has tactically and strategically outmaneuvered them each time, albeit without Gingrich’s theatrics or base tending. Little good it has done him in the polls; Santorum has been plummeting since his short-lived bounce following his Iowa victory showed the former Pennsylvania senator to be electable. Santorum needs to exhibit some emotion – if Gingrich’s rise has shown anything, it is that the GOP base wants to see passion form their nominee. Romney has attempted to emulate this strategy, but he cannot help but come off as wooden and disingenuous. Santorum has a better chance of making a Gingrich impression appear genuine – but he has been reluctant to embrace the stem-winding, podium-pounding passion of his opponents. Santorum needs a strong third place finish in Florida to continue to drive in the donations he needs to compete through a quiet February. Without a powerful debate performance tonight, the prospects for the survival of his campaign are doubtful.
Ron Paul: (Previous letter grade: C+) Paul had a disappointing performance in the last debate – contrasting sharply with a great final debate performance in South Carolina. Paul gets far with a Florida audience that has been so badly damaged by federal programs, like affordable housing and the government-backed mortgage giants and banking regulations that were intended to finance this program. Paul’s message of non-intervention in free markets resonates strongly with Florida voters. What does not resonate strongly, once again, is his insistence that foreign wars are all that stands between us and utopia. For him and his supporters, this is an article of faith that you could no more repudiate than you could repudiate one’s own parents. For that reason, Paul is and will always be a marginal candidate within the Republican Party. If he could triangulate his position for a moment for the sake of political gain, he would appeal to a far broader base of voters. However, he appears to view this as a betrayal of genuinely held values and even a lie to his constituency. Whatever his beliefs, it hurts him with voters. Paul has declined to contest Florida because it is a closed primary open only to registered Republicans and he is unlikely to do well here on Tuesday. His campaign is focused on delegate gathering at the caucus states where organization can trump raw vote totals. Expect Paul to be Paul at tonight’s debate.
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